In April, solar reached a new milestone, providing more than
2.3 percent of U.S. electrical supply, according to the latest issue of the
U.S. Energy Information's (EIA) Electric Power Monthly, with data through
April 30, 2017. Consequently, solar has now moved into third place among
renewable sources — behind hydropower and wind but ahead of biomass and
geothermal.
In April, utility-scale plus small-scale solar provided
20,928 thousand megawatt-hours (TMWh) compared to 20,509 TMWh from biomass
and 5,945 TMWh from geothermal.
Renewables Provide More Electricity Than Nuclear
Electric Power Monthly reveals that — for the first
time since the beginning of the nuclear era — renewable
energy sources (i.e., biomass,
geothermal, hydropower,
solar — including small-scale PV, wind) are now providing a greater share of
the nation's electrical generation than nuclear power.
For the first third of this year, renewables and nuclear power have been
running neck-in-neck with renewables providing 20.2 percent of U.S. net
electrical generation during the four-month period (January - April) compared
to 20.75 percent for nuclear power. But in March and April, renewables
surpassed nuclear power and have taken a growing lead: 21.6 percent
(renewables) vs. 20.34 percent (nuclear) in March, and 22.98 percent
(renewables) vs. 19.19 percent (nuclear) in April.
While renewables and nuclear are each likely to continue to provide roughly
one-fifth of the nation's electricity generation in the near-term, the trend
line clearly favors a rapidly expanding market share by renewables. Electrical
output by renewables during the first third of 2017 compared to the same period
in 2016 has increased by 12.1 percent whereas nuclear output has dropped by 2.9
percent.
In fact, nuclear capacity has declined over the last four
years, a trend which is projected to continue, regardless of planned new
reactor startups. From 2013-16, six reactors permanently ceased operation
(Crystal River, Kewaunee, San Onofre-2, San Onofre-3, Vermont Yankee, Fort
Calhoun), totaling 4,862 MW of generation capacity. Last year, one new reactor
(Watts Bar-2) was connected to the grid (after a 43-year construction period),
adding 1,150 MW, for a net decline of 3,712 MW since 2013. Six more reactors
are scheduled to close by 2021, totaling 5,234 MW (5.2 percent of nuclear
capacity). Two more reactors totaling 2,240 MW are scheduled to close by 2025.*
In addition, nuclear generators are discussing the potential
retirements of several more. Against the planned retirement of 7,274 MW of
capacity, four new reactors are in construction, totaling 4,468 MW. The
completion of these reactors is in doubt, however, due to billions of dollars
in cost overruns and the bankruptcy of designer-builder Westinghouse.
If all reactors being built are ultimately completed, total nuclear generating
capacity will decline by at least 2,806 MW (3 percent) by 2025, planned
additions against planned retirements. If these projects are cancelled, nuclear
capacity will decline by at least 7,274 MW (7.2 percent) from 2017, accounting
for roughly 57,000 TMWh/year of generation.
On the other hand, almost all renewable energy sources are experiencing strong
growth rates. Comparing the first four months of 2017 to the same period in
2016, solar has grown by 37.9 percent, wind by 14.2 percent, hydropower by 9.5
percent, and geothermal by 5.3 percent. Biomass (including wood and
wood-derived fuels) has remained essentially unchanged — slipping by just 0.3
percent.
In recent years, the strong growth rates of both solar and wind have resulted
in new records being set virtually every month. For the second month in a row,
solar and wind combined provided more than 10 percent of the nation's
electrical generation. In March 2017, those sources provided 10.04 percent of the
nation's electrical generation. That record was eclipsed in April when solar
and wind reached nearly 11 percent (10.92 percent) of total generation. And,
for the first time, wind and solar combined have provided more electricity
year-to-date (113,971 TMWh than has hydropower (111,750 TMWh).
Fossil Fuels Decline
And not coincidentally, as renewables' share of electrical
generation has grown, that of fossil fuels has declined. Electrical generation
by fossil fuels (i.e., coal, natural gas, petroleum liquids + petroleum coke)
dropped by 5.2 percent during the first third of 2017 compared to 2016.
In light of their growth rates in recent years, it was
inevitable that renewable sources would eventually overtake nuclear power. The
only real surprise is how soon that has happened — years before most analysts
ever expected.
"Renewable energy is now surpassing nuclear power, a major milestone in
the transformation of the U.S. energy sector," said Tim Judson, executive
director of the Nuclear Information and Resource Service. "This gulf
will only widen over the next several years, with continued strong growth of
renewables and the planned retirement of at least 7 percent of nuclear capacity
by 2025. The possible completion of four new reactors will not be enough to
reverse this trend, with total nuclear capacity falling by 2,806 MW (3 percent)
through 2025."
*Planned nuclear reactor retirements (state - capacity -
year): Palisades (MI, 811-MW, 2018), Pilgrim (MA, 688-MW, 2019), Oyster Creek
(NJ, 637-MW, 2019), Three Mile Island 1 (PA, 829-MW, 2019), Indian Point 2 (NY,
1,028-MW, 2020), Indian Point 3 (NY, 1,040-MW, 2021), Diablo Canyon 1 (CA
1,118-MW, 2024), Diablo Canyon 2 (CA, 1,122-MW, 2025).
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