Vote Solar’s Adam Browning offers up his picks for the most
important trends of 2018.
In 2002, when solar was $9 a watt, I co-founded an advocacy
organization to bring solar into the mainstream. Solar’s made a lot of progress
since then, and 2018 feels like a crucial year in many ways, with some key
successes and pivotal developments.
Here’s my list of the most important stories in solar in
2018, and predictions for 2019.
1. 100% is the new black
Hawaii did it first, but California’s SB 100, committing the
world’s fifth-largest economy to 60 percent renewable energy by 2030 and 100
percent carbon-free by 2045, is the biggest and most important climate action
taken to date in the U.S.
It’s big because California is big, and important because it
sets the bar higher for what’s possible. Since then, Xcel Energy, a major
utility serving 3.3 million customers, announced its own decision to go 100
percent carbon-free by 2050, New York Governor Cuomo pledged to work with
lawmakers to pass 100 percent carbon-free legislation in 2019, and New Jersey
Governor Phil Murphy is backing a target of 100 percent clean energy by 2050.
Washington, D.C. (the city, not the federal government) also just passed its
own bill to go 100 percent carbon-free, topping the
list of 101 cities that have already committed to that
goal.
2. There are votes in solar
While politicians have long given a nod to pro-renewables
sentiment, in 2018 this phenomenon reached a new level of precision and power.
The League of Conservation Voters counted 1,400 candidates
on the November ballot that committed to a 100 percent clean energy platform,
including eight winning governors. That’s amazing and is already having an
impact. Xcel, which voluntarily committed to 100 percent clean energy in
December, operates in eight states. Five of those states have new governors
signed onto 100 percent clean energy. Elections matter.
3. Old coal and new nukes did not have a good year
Coal usage has fallen to its lowest since 1979, retiring
about 14
gigawatts this year. And what happened in South Carolina drove another nail
in the coffin of the nuclear industry’s future prospects.
For those who didn’t follow the Post and
Courier’s excellent coverage of the demise of the VC Summer nuclear plant:
After the $9 billion project was abandoned while only 40 percent finished, and
ratepayers were paying $27/month for a boondoggle that may never produce a
single kilowatt-hour of electricity, the South Carolina House voted 107-1 to
fire the regulators who approved construction-work-in-progress payments, and
the regulators, in turn, threatened to claw back money from utilities.
I can’t think of a commission in the country where there are
three votes to sign up for that ride. To have a future going forward, nukes will
have to get radically cheaper and try a business model that isn’t political
suicide for policymakers. And it’s not just me who thinks so. An executive of
Exelon, the largest owner of nuclear assets in the U.S., said he doesn’t think new nuclear, including small modular
reactors, will be built in the U.S. due to high costs and performance of
renewables and storage. This is definitely a turning point and reinforces my
belief that the future of carbon-free energy is renewables.
4. Peak peaker?
Solar-plus-storage is emerging as a gas killer. Lithium-ion
battery prices have improved 85 percent in the past eight years, per Bloomberg
New Energy Finance.
Over the past several years utilities have signed
solar-plus-storage deals at increasingly competitive terms. What’s new and
different this year is that solar-plus-storage bids are winning all-source RFPs
(such as this 50-megawatt
battery deal with Arizona Public Service) — and the trust of regulators
to rely on these clean solutions as replacements for gas peakers.
Calpine tried to make an end-run around the California
Public Utilities Commission to get reliability-must-run status for some of its
peakers. The CPUC was not amused, and now we have approval for the world’s largest batteries replacing
three gas plants. Notably, both NextEra CEO Jim Robo and AES CEO Andres Gluski
have said they don't expect to build a peaker past 2020. Why not start the
stopping now and save us the future stranded assets?
5. New dawn for new utility regulatory and business
models
Distributed energy resources have the potential to more efficiently
deliver services and reduce costs for everyone. But as long as regulated
utilities’ revenues are linked to deploying more capital, there’s a structural
barrier to success that needs to be addressed.
The growth of community-choice aggregation in California is
one model for more local control. Hawaii, which just passed a crucially
important law introducing performance-based
regulation to the state, offers another model. The premise is to pay
for — and therefore incentivize — results, not capital deployment. Rhode Island and Vermont have initiated exploratory
dockets, but having an actual example of how this can work in Hawaii will be
enormously helpful for replication.
6. Solar on new home construction
The California Energy Commission has a mandate to include
cost-effective energy saving measures in building codes. Their last revision to
Title 24, which underwent years of public input and scrutiny, found that
requiring solar as a part of new housing construction is a clear net economic
benefit to owners.
Starting in 2020, new homes built in California will come
with solar. Because installations on new construction are cheaper than
retrofits, our calculations show that energy savings will exceed marginal
increases in mortgage payments upwards of $60 a month for an average home.
Scaling this nationally would add 203
gigawatts of solar and cut CO2 emissions by 9 percent by 2045,
and polls well with 63 percent support.
Time to start building like we plan to stay on this planet
for a while.
Predictions for 2019
Here's what I see happening over the next year to accelerate
these trends.
1. Multiple new states will pass major new renewable
portfolio standards
Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada and New York top the list, with
many more contenders in play. Other states will lift major new renewable goals
through integrated resource plans or equivalents.
2. The Green New Deal resets the conversation
Kudos to the new generation of activists who have really
forced the climate crisis on the next Congress’ agenda and are doing a
masterful job framing the conversation around the benefits to people’s lives,
not wonky acronyms or clunky policy pathways (as the saying goes, there are
only two problems with carbon tax messaging: carbon and tax).
At the same time, let’s be clear: This is welcome mojo, but
the states are where the deal will actually get done.
3. Federal government headwinds
The Trump administration’s 30 percent tariffs on solar
panels resulted in the cancellation of about $8 billion in solar projects in 2018, eliminating about
9,000 jobs. And while efforts at both the DOE and FERC to blow up competitive
energy markets and provide billions in subsidies to out-of-market coal and
nukes on unsupported reliability grounds haven’t yet come to fruition, the new
FERC Commissioner Bernard McNamee’s history of radical antipathy toward renewables is
really concerning.
The fight over whether the U.S. energy markets will go full
oligarchy will heat up in 2019.
4. Building electrification
The real savings come from not having to build fossil
infrastructure in the first place, and the push to electrify everything will
boost renewable generation further. With solar on the roof, induction cooking
and heat pumps, we’re going to see new communities increasingly pass on gas.
5. Footholds for equity and access
California’s 100 percent clean law would not have happened
without the leadership of environmental justice activists, full stop. Energy
justice and community-based organizations all across the country are on the
frontline of the fight to make the clean energy economy work for everyone.
This year, the NAACP partnered with justice, industry and
advocacy organizations (including Vote Solar) for the Solar Equity Initiative
to bring jobs and bill savings where they’re need most. Groups like GRID
Alternatives, Power52 and others have done great work expanding job training
and opportunities to disadvantaged communities. Policymakers from New Jersey to
Illinois to California are increasing focused on developing programs that
ensure equity and access in energy.
The industry is catching on to that leadership: SEIA has
made a commitment to diversity in the solar industry, and The Solar Foundation
is now publishing important benchmarking
studies to track its progress. This country has a long way to go, but
I’m excited about the possibilities and believe 2019 will be a pivotal year in
this transformation.
6. Heartland heats up
NIPSCO, a municipal utility in Indiana, made headlines when
it announced that after crunching the numbers, shutting
down all its coal plants and replacing them with largely renewables would save
ratepayers $4 billion over 20 years. Math combined with a real consideration of
ratepayer interests can be a powerful thing.
There’s been a lot of groundwork and progress in the
region — the Illinois Future Energy Jobs Act; PURPA progress and Consumers
Energy's integrated resource plan with plans for 6 gigawatts of solar in
Michigan; and Minnesota’s renewable portfolio standard and community solar
program. With a bevy of new governors committed to renewable progress, I
predict it will be one of the hottest regions for new solar growth.
That’s my take on the highlights — your mileage may vary.
What’s indisputable is that it’s an exciting time to be alive as we aim to
transform one of the largest and most politically entrenched industries. Best
to you all in the new year, and may solar shine in 2019.
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