Poland is set to miss its target of covering up to 15% of
energy demand with renewables by 2020.
Under the most favorable scenario
provided by a report released by local consultancy Ecofys, new additions for
solar may reach 695 GWh, while the country is expected to reach a target of
only 13.8% by the end of the decade.
Poland has a reputation as Europe’s most polluting country,
still relying massively on coal power production and not supporting the
development of renewable energies. In confirmation of this, renewable energy
consultancy Ecofys recently published a report in which it clearly says that
Poland will miss its 2020 renewable energy target.
According to the report, the country will miss the target
even under the most favorable scenario, which predicts it will cover 13.8% of
its energy demand with renewables by 2020, and not 15% as planned by the Polish
government in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP). Under the
worst-case scenario, however, Poland is expected to reach a percentage of only
10.0%.
The authors of the report find that the mere continuation of
the country’s current renewable energy policy would not be enough to meet the
target, and that the government needs to take immediate action to provide
further incentives for renewables.
In performing their analysis, Ecofys experts took into
account the announced auctioned volumes for renewables under the Renewable
Energy Act of 2015, which are already known only for 2016 and 2017 (and not for
2018 and 2019), and the effect of the existing net metering regulation.
Ecofys said that, under the most optimistic scenario, new
additions would result in a further 3,850 GWh by 2020. Biomass would have the
largest share in this scenario, followed by solar and on-shore wind, according
to the report. New solar installations would be enough to ensure new generation
of approximately 983 GWh, while biomass and wind would account for 1,709 GWh
and 695 GWh, respectively.
Under the worst scenario, however, new power production from
renewables would be “four times lower”, with biomass still having the lion’s
share with 366 GWh, while solar would see the addition of just 184 GWh.
In order to meet the 2020 target, the report notes,
additional support expenditures are required. Furthermore, the Polish
government should ensure that investments for renewable energy power projects
planned in the period 2016-2018 will be operational by the end of 2020. Ecofys
analysts also stressed that new measures should be taken independently from the
assumptions on final energy demand growth for the coming years.
Poland’s
installed PV capacity had reached approximately 192.8 MW as of the end of
December 2016. This capacity consists of 17,000 PV systems up to 40
kW, totaling 93.7 MW, and 473 installations exceeding 40 kW with a combined
capacity of 99.1 MW. The Polish government is currently supporting solar
through net metering and an auction mechanism for large-scale projects.
Through the first auction, which was held last year,
Poland’s Ministry of Energy has selected total of 82 renewable energy projects
up to 1 MW. The highest bid was PLN 408 ($100.2)/MWh and the lowest 253.5 PLN
($62.2)/MWh. For 2017, Poland’s Ministry of Energy has planned another auction. The government is considering setting a ceiling price of PLN 450 ($110.5)/MWh
for the PV source. This compares to PLN 465 ($114.2)/MWh set for the auction
held in December 2016.
Over 80% of Poland’s power production was covered by coal in
2015. Around 79.9 TWh (48.4%) was generated at hard coal-fired power
plants, while another 52.9 TWh (32.1%) was provided by lignite-fired power
plants. Solar had a share of only 0.04%.
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