New Governors Could Mandate 34 GWac More Solar, Wind by 2030

Illinois, Nevada show most potential for solar

A new analysis by Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables finds that the renewable energy and climate ambitions of governors elected on November 6 could increase the total market for solar in five states by 17.7 GWac, if all five pass 50% by 2030 mandates.

November 6 was a big night for renewable energy and climate policies. While voters rejected a 50% by 2030 renewable energy mandate in Arizona and a carbon tax in Washington, they also elected governors in five states that have called for stronger renewable energy mandates.

Four more either pledged to commit to the Paris Agreement or are in states that have already joined an alliance of states committed to meeting Paris Agreement goals. Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables has identified renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies as the most likely way to meet those goals, bringing the total number of states that could potentially see RPS increases to nine.

In a new report, Wood Mackenzie looks at the market ramifications of states passing 50% by 2030 renewable energy mandates. This is less than the 100% being called for by three of these governors, however both timelines and total ambition of the final policies will likely be decided through political processes.

The report found that if all five pass 50% by 2030 RPS policies, this could increase the total solar that is built by 2030 by 17.7 GWac, and the total wind by 16.5 GW. These volumes and ratios are based on current electric demand and the current wind/solar ratio in each state, and it is important to note that these numbers are outside of other renewable development which may happen for other reasons, including to meet current RPS mandates or driven by factors such as voluntary utility and corporate procurement.

The state that would see the most solar market growth as the result of a more ambitious RPS is Illinois, which at 9.1 GWac makes up more than half of the total anticipated increase. This is doubtless due to the much larger population in Illinois, including 8 million residents in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, than other states that are considering raising their mandates.

Wood Mackenzie has expressed concerns regarding Illinois’ financial condition, and it is also unclear how the state’s sizable nuclear fleet would fit into all of this. However, the firm points to a large interconnection queue for wind and solar projects, and also the state’s ability to import capacity from other wind-rich states in the region.

The state with the 2nd-greatest potential for more solar is Nevada. And while Governor-elect Steve Sisolak (D) has called for putting the state on a path to 100% renewable energy, the initial path forward is up to Nevada voters. November 6 saw an electoral victory for the state’s Question 6, which calls for 50% renewables by 2030, however the bill must go to the voters one more time before becoming law.

Wood Mackenzie is projecting that all new capacity under an RPS in Nevada will come from solar, not wind, and that this additional 4 GW by 2030 would more than double the current volume in the state. Nevada is one of only three states where solar met more than 10% of in-state electricity demand in 2017, and the state also has developed its geothermal resources.

Political and infrastructure constraints

The report projects that New Mexico, Colorado and Minnesota would each deploy from 1-2 GWac of additional solar to meet a 50% by 2030 RPS. In Colorado and Minnesota wind is expected to dominate capacity additions, but none of these states have particularly large populations and electric demand.

Wood Mackenzie also included Michigan in the report, but as major actors in this state do not appear to be contemplating an RPS increase we have omitted this from our summary of the findings.

The firm also noted that Democratic governors who have taken office in Kansas and Wisconsin are unlikely to pass RPS policies with Republican control of both houses of each state’s legislature. 

Wood Mackenzie additionally did not provide forecasts for Connecticut and Maine, due to a variety of factors. This includes a preference in the region for importing Canadian hydropower, and “severe transmission constraints” in Maine.

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Wisconsin’s Capital City Sets a High Bar with Ambitious Renewable Energy Goal

Madison, Wisconsin committed to getting 100 percent of its energy from clean, renewable sources in a resolution passed unanimously by the City Council on Tuesday. It became the 24th city to make such a promise, according to a tally by the Sierra Club, which has a “Ready for 100” nationwide campaign.

Madison’s resolution sets a high bar in a state that gets most of its electricity from coal and where, as in most places, natural gas is almost exclusively used for heating during harsh winters.

Clean Energy Policy Wins and Losses of 2014

There’s been policy action in nearly every corner of the country. Here are the highlights.

This year has been a mixed bag for state-level energy policy.

Overall, solar deployment expanded dramatically. In some states, growth was aided by expansions to net energy metering (NEM) and other policies facilitating distributed energy resources (DER). In others, however, those policies came under attack. South Carolina, for instance, became the latest state to set a renewable energy target, while Ohio became the first state to put a freeze on its progress toward its target.

Wisconsin State Commission Backs Electric Bill Hikes, ‘Solar Tax’

The Wisconsin Public Service Commission voted for a rate plan submitted by We Energies that environmentalists say penalizes customers who conserve energy and jeopardizes the fledgling solar industry in southeastern Wisconsin.

“We feel like what the PSC approved for the We Energies rate case is a huge setback for Wisconsin in the area of clean energy development,” said Keith Reopelle, senior policy director for Clean Wisconsin, a statewide environmental advocacy group.

Solar Rooftops in Wisconsin Get Costlier as State Approves Fees

Buying a solar rooftop in Wisconsin will become a lot less affordable under fees and utility rate changes approved today for a Wisconsin Energy Corp. (WEC) unit.

State regulators today approved fees on any home or business that installs solar in the Milwaukee-based utility’s service area, said Nathan Conrad, a spokesman for the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin.

Legislative Dems in Wisconsin Propose Renewable Energy Ramp-Up to 30% by 2030

Saying the state needs a long-term energy plan, Democrats in the state Legislature are proposing to expand utilities' use of renewable energy to supply power to their customers.

The bill being unveiled this week would increase the state's renewable energy target to 30% by 2030.

Wisconsin utilities have already essentially complied with the 2015 mandate, which requires that 10% of the state's electricity come from renewable sources that year.

Wisconsin May Make More Companies Eligible for Renewable Energy Credit

There appears to be bipartisan support for changing the way Wisconsin allocates renewable energy credits to utilities and companies that produce electric power.

Under current law, renewable energy credits are only available to utilities or companies that produce energy from facilities that went on line after June of 2010. The proposed change would allow companies that produce energy from renewable sources like hydropower or biomass to earn credits even if their facilities were operating before 2010.