But coal will be king for a long time.
Poland, Europe’s biggest exporter and second-biggest
consumer of coal, is cautiously embracing renewables to improve the security of
its energy supply and meet European Union targets.
At the end of last month, the country’s upper house of
parliament approved the removal of clean power investment roadblocks within a
new renewable energy law aimed at putting Poland back on track to meet its EU
commitment of 15 percent renewables by 2020.
The country had strayed from its target after Law and
Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość or PiS in Polish), a national conservative
party, gained power in 2015 with pledges to support the coal industry, Euractiv reported. The following year, the party turned
sour on onshore wind.
Poland had been the second-largest wind market in Europe
during 2015, but investment fell off a cliff in 2016 when lawmakers quadrupled
taxes on turbines, made it illegal to build plants within 1.2 miles of
buildings or forests and imposed draconian inspection measures.
By October 2017, the U.S. developer Invenergy, which had
installed 5 percent of Poland’s wind capacity at a cost of more than $600
million, was accusing the Polish government of actions “tantamount to an
expropriation” and seeking $700 million in damages, Bloomberg reported.
This year’s change came partly in response to criticisms
from other EU members, 11 of which have already met the 2020 renewable energy
goals set in 2008. But a desire to improve security of supply also likely
weighed heavily in the decision.
In February, Polish energy official Piotr Naimski said a move to snub Russia with a gas
import link to Norway was “a question of security.”
Poland has been buying gas from Moscow since 1944. It
imported 63 percent of its supplies from Russia last year, but the PiS has said
it will not renew a contract with Gazprom in 2020. The gas pipeline to Norway
is scheduled to come online in 2022.
Meanwhile, Poland’s new renewable-friendly stance has
prompted an uptick in interest from investors.
Last month, for example, Sun Investment Group announced
plans to install 250 megawatts of solar power in the country, which it said
represented 15 percent of Poland’s PV market.
The projects, worth €40 million ($47 million), were awarded
in public auctions and come with a 15-year contract for difference. They will
be built by energy group E-Energija and PV construction firm I+D
Energias.
Andrius Terskovas, head of business development at Sun
Investment Group, said public opinion favors increasing renewables
penetration.
“Fewer than two-fifths of the respondents see the chances of
ensuring energy security for Poland in the use of crude oil, and even fewer
people choose coal in this context,” he said, referencing research from 2016.
The scene is now set for growth in renewables across Poland,
with biomass, solar and offshore wind likely taking most new generation
capacity. But it will be some time before the country shrugs off its coal
addiction.
International Energy Agency figures
show coal accounting for 80 percent of the country’s 166
terawatt-hours of electricity generation in 2016. Renewables made up 14 percent
of the mix, compared to an average of 30 percent across the E.U.
Today Poland remains the 10th-largest coal consumer in the
world, and the second largest in Europe, after Germany.
“According to the official Polish Government Energy Policy
Strategy, coal will remain the key element of the country’s energy security
until at least 2030,” according to the World Energy Council.
And for all the optimism offered by recent events, Tom
Heggarty, a Wood Mackenzie senior analyst for global solar PV, said the market
remained a challenging one for solar developers.
“To date, only projects of up to 1 megawatt in size have
been auctioned, so there's a lot of development work required to achieve any
meaningful scale in the market,” he said.
“The government and regulator have been talking for a while
about 1-megawatt-plus auctions that will be open to both onshore wind and PV,
but it is by no means a given that solar will win a large volume of capacity
through those, as onshore wind looks pretty competitive in Poland.”
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